Having now been validated by the events in Aleppo, the strategy is sure to be exported to other areas now in the sightline of the Russian-led forces, mainly Eastern Ghouta and the Hama countryside.
Slowly, over the past few months, this strategy has put the death knell to any serious opposition's ability to shape the course of the conflict. The strategy employed to bring this about was quite clear: bombard and besiege specific areas cut off supply routes intensify attacks against any existing infrastructure and impose ceasefires and related agreements that forced armed groups out of the areas. This meant that the most significant and potentially powerful concentration of armed oppositionists congealed in Eastern Aleppo, including Ahrar al-Sham, Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra front), Jaysh al-Mujahideen, and key brigades associated with the Free Syrian Army.įor all intents and purposes, the collapse of the armed opposition in Aleppo has removed the major military threats to regime advancement. Groups had consolidated in Aleppo and received displaced fighters from other areas, integrating them into their ranks.
Opposition groups have thus suffered from both the decreased patronage of their regional sponsors and the serious material degradations caused by the Russian-led intervention. What is emerging then is a new Syrian order, one in which Russian-led forces are able to impose new military and political realities on the conflict. Most importantly, however, was the decimation of armed groups' capacity and their increasing inability to resist regime-led advances. The strategy has been validated by sustained territorial gains and the collective indifference of most of the world.
Any besiege free key full#
There were no restrictions or limitations to the extent of destruction wrought on Aleppo and the approach of full military force is unlikely to change. While sound prediction and analysis in this moment is a challenging, if not entirely flawed, exercise, there are certain trajectories that point to what the future may hold. When the Russian intervention into the Syrian conflict accelerated in mid-2016, many analysts and partisans declared the "Battle of Aleppo" to hold the key to the future of the Syrian conflict.ĭecisive victory one way or another, or the re-establishment of a military stalemate, would dramatically affect the course of the conflict and the possibilities of a political solution, no matter how flawed or unjust.Īs 2016 draws to a close, the Russian-led intervention into Aleppo has led to virtually the entire city falling under the control of regime-aligned forces, begging the question: What next?
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